RV 1649 · MIA → YYZ

departs 9:03 PM ET · arrives 12:15 AM EST

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YYZ?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ 9pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ MIA is busy at that time

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at YYZ

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.76 in

YYZ (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

RV 1649 · MIA → YYZ

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYZ?