SY 107 · MSP → LAS

departs 4:21 PM CT · arrives 5:56 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 31 kt, cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from MSP are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.60 in

LAS (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

SY 107 · MSP → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?