SY 502 · DFW → MSP

departs 11:51 AM CT · arrives 2:24 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 31 kt, cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ 11am departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.17 in

MSP (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.88 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

SY 502 · DFW → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?