Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 196
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 196 · ATL → BNA
departs 9:24 PM ET · arrives 9:38 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1 51%
Mon 11/2
Tue 11/3 26%
Wed 11/4 25%
Thu 11/5 34%
Fri 11/6 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from ATL are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.