Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2135
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 2135 · HOU → TPA
departs 8:21 PM CT · arrives 11:39 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1 64%
Mon 11/2
Tue 11/3 37%
Wed 11/4 36%
Thu 11/5 43%
Fri 11/6 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.45 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.