Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2406
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2 Tomorrow
WN 2406 · MDW → DCA
departs 8:46 PM CT · arrives 11:46 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 30%
Fri 11/6 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from MDW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.