Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2946
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 2946 · MDW → OMA
departs 9:58 PM CT · arrives 11:32 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1 45%
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 41%
Fri 11/6 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at OMA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OMA?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
9pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at OMA that day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
OMA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
OMA (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.67 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.