Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4821
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2 Tomorrow
WN 4821 · BNA → CLT
departs 8:26 PM CT · arrives 10:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 AM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 33%
Fri 11/6 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at CLT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLT?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.02 in
CLT (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.