Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 26, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4887
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 2
WN 4887 · DAL → AUS
departs 9:51 PM CT · arrives 11:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/1 51%
Mon 11/2
Thu 11/5 45%
Fri 11/6 43%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
60%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed – in 24h
–
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
34%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt forecast at DAL that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
DAL is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.