WN 4997 · AUS → DCA

took off 12:13 PM CT · landed 3:59 PM ET (scheduled 11:52 AM CT → 4:09 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DCA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4997 · AUS → DCA

Odds over time

How late did it get to DCA?