YX 4342 · MEM → DCA

departs 6:17 PM CT · arrives 9:41 PM ET

Your aircraft is N404YX (E75S), coming in as YX 4437 from ORD: in the air, landing about 5:29 PM CT, 43 min before departure.

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from MEM are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MEM (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.01 in

DCA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4342 · MEM → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?