YX 4398 · LGA → DCA

departs 5:17 PM ET · arrives 6:47 PM ET

Your aircraft is N115HQ (E75S), coming in as YX 4388 from CLE: landed 3:46 PM ET.

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4398 · LGA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?