YX 4407 · DCA → RSW

took off 11:26 AM ET · expected to land 1:38 PM ET (scheduled 10:38 AM ET → 1:24 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RSW?

LIVE

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
51%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at RSW that day

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RSW (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.41 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4407 · DCA → RSW

Odds over time

How late will it get to RSW?