YX 4479 · LGA → DCA

departs 7:50 PM ET · arrives 9:20 PM ET

Your aircraft is N108HQ (E75S), coming in as YX 4377 from DCA: still at DCA, due off about 6:44 PM ET, 7 min after the scheduled departure (a tight turn, so this flight may leave late).

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 7pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4479 · LGA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?