YX 4491 · BNA → DCA

departs 6:18 PM CT · arrives 9:17 PM ET

Your aircraft is N403YX (E75S), coming in as YX 4356 from JFK: landed 4:59 PM CT.

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 44% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.02 in

DCA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4491 · BNA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?