Schedule: FAA flight plans.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4500
SCHEDULED
Monday, November 2 Today
YX 4500 · DCA → IND
departs 4:58 PM ET · arrives 6:57 PM ET
Your aircraft is N124HQ (E75S), coming in as YX 4732 from ECP: in the air, landing about 4:43 PM ET, 9 min before departure (a tight turn, so this flight may leave late).
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 11/8 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
74%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
74%
Leave 15+ late
90%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1.7d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?
The FAA now expects it to take off 46 min after the scheduled departure, about 28 min late from the gate after a typical 18-min taxi. Forecast before takeoff: 19%.
+4 pts
74%
Yes 74%
No 26%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
The FAA now expects it to take off 46 min after the scheduled departure, about 28 min late from the gate after a typical 18-min taxi. Forecast before takeoff: 17%.
+6 pts
90%
Yes 90%
No 10%
Arrive at IND more than an hour late?
The FAA now expects it to take off 46 min after the scheduled departure, about 28 min late from the gate after a typical 18-min taxi. Forecast before takeoff: 4%.
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to IND?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into IND at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IND (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 1.5 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.