YX 4508 · JFK → DCA

left the gate 5:32 PM ET · taxiing (scheduled 5:24 PM ET → 6:54 PM ET)

Your aircraft is N434YX (E75L), coming in as YX 4405 from CMH: landed 4:39 PM ET.

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4508 · JFK → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?