YX 4519 · DCA → IND

departs 7:28 PM ET · arrives 9:27 PM ET

Your aircraft is N106HQ (E75S), coming in as YX 4769 from STL: landed 6:42 PM ET.

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±0 pts +32 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IND?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
42%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IND (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4519 · DCA → IND

Odds over time

How late will it get to IND?