YX 4582 · BOS → DCA

took off 3:02 PM ET · expected to land 4:15 PM ET (scheduled 2:39 PM ET → 4:35 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from BOS are often late

↑ BOS is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

Weather at each end

BOS (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4582 · BOS → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?