YX 4624 · RDU → DCA

departs 3:16 PM ET · arrives 4:36 PM ET

Your aircraft is N427YX (E75L), coming in as YX 4551 from BNA: landed 2:31 PM ET.

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

80% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 46% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from RDU are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

DCA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4624 · RDU → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?