YX 4638 · PWM → DCA

departs 4:04 PM ET · arrives 5:57 PM ET

Your aircraft is N107HQ (E75S), coming in as YX 4638 from DCA: landed 3:18 PM ET.

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from PWM are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PWM

Weather at each end

PWM (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4638 · PWM → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?