YX 4659 · PIT → DCA

took off 11:16 AM ET · expected to land 12:01 PM ET (scheduled 10:46 AM ET → 12:11 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

3% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

LIVE

On time or early
97%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT

Weather at each end

PIT (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4659 · PIT → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?