YX 4667 · CHS → DCA

took off 12:02 PM ET · expected to land 1:08 PM ET (scheduled 11:06 AM ET → 12:52 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

73% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

LIVE

On time or early
27%
15–30 min late
54%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CHS

Weather at each end

CHS (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4667 · CHS → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?