YX 4675 · DCA → CLE

departs 9:54 PM ET · arrives 11:28 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to CLE?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Arrivals into CLE at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLE (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4675 · DCA → CLE

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLE?