YX 4709 · DCA → CLE

took off 6:13 PM ET · expected to land 7:07 PM ET (scheduled 5:22 PM ET → 6:57 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?

61% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CLE?

LIVE

On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
50%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLE (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4709 · DCA → CLE

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLE?