YX 4716 · DTW → DCA

took off 1:31 PM ET · landed 2:37 PM ET (scheduled 1:13 PM ET → 3:04 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DCA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from DTW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4716 · DTW → DCA

Odds over time

How late did it get to DCA?