YX 4769 · DCA → STL

took off 2:17 PM ET · expected to land 3:05 PM CT (scheduled 1:38 PM ET → 3:10 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to STL?

LIVE

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4769 · DCA → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?