YX 4769 · STL → DCA

departs 3:45 PM CT · arrives 7:06 PM ET

Your aircraft is N106HQ (E75S), coming in as YX 4769 from DCA: landed 3:08 PM CT.

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 3pm departures from STL are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.02 in

DCA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4769 · STL → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?