YX 4804 · DCA → MSN

took off 4:11 PM ET · expected to land 4:55 PM CT (scheduled 3:47 PM ET → 5:09 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSN?

LIVE

On time or early
99%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at MSN that day

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSN (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4804 · DCA → MSN

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSN?