YX 4804 · MSN → DCA

departs 5:50 PM CT · arrives 9:12 PM ET

Your aircraft is N117HQ (E75S), coming in as YX 4804 from DCA: landed 4:59 PM CT.

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 5pm departures from MSN are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ MSN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSN (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.06 in

DCA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4804 · MSN → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?