YX 5708 · DCA → BNA

took off 11:08 AM ET · expected to land 11:38 AM CT (scheduled 11:01 AM ET → 12:05 PM CT)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BNA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from DCA are often late

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↑ Visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at BNA that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.41 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5708 · DCA → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?