AA 1256 · CLT → BUF

took off 4:32 PM ET · expected to land 5:44 PM ET (scheduled 4:19 PM ET → 6:13 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BUF?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ CLT is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1256 · CLT → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?