AA 1657 · CLT → SAT

took off 7:02 PM ET · expected to land 8:40 PM CT (scheduled 5:32 PM ET → 7:33 PM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
87%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1657 · CLT → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?