AA 1867 · DCA → MSY

departs 2:44 PM ET · arrives 4:27 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSY (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1867 · DCA → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?