AA 1953 · MIA → STL

departs 1:37 PM ET · arrives 3:46 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.39 in

STL (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.59 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1953 · MIA → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?