AA 2249 · MCO → DCA

departs 11:53 AM ET · arrives 2:14 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at MCO that day

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.47 in

DCA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling11,833 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2249 · MCO → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?