AA 2464 · CLT → SMF

took off 6:09 PM ET · landed 7:58 PM PT (scheduled 5:40 PM ET → 8:13 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SMF?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2464 · CLT → SMF

Odds over time

How late did it get to SMF?