AA 2983 · CLT → MSY

took off 4:44 PM ET · landed 5:11 PM CT (scheduled 4:01 PM ET → 5:04 PM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MSY?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Arrivals into MSY at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

MSY (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2983 · CLT → MSY

Odds over time

How late did it get to MSY?