AA 3059 · ORD → SAT

departs 10:26 AM CT · arrives 1:24 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at SAT that day

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling767 ft Visibility5.66667 mi Precip0.09 in

SAT (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3059 · ORD → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?