MQ 3416 · ORD → MSP

took off 8:32 AM CT · expected to land 9:25 AM CT (scheduled 8:20 AM CT → 9:49 AM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MSP?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility6.33333 mi Precip0.12 in

MSP (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.38 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3416 · ORD → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?