MQ 3541 · MIA → ELH

took off 11:19 AM ET · landed 11:56 AM EST (scheduled 10:04 AM ET → 11:18 AM EST)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at ELH more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±2 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ELH?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from MIA are often late

↑ MIA is busy at that time

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ELH

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts36 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip1.10 in

ELH (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3541 · MIA → ELH

Odds over time

How late did it get to ELH?