OH 5546 · DCA → ROC

took off 4:26 PM ET · landed 5:21 PM ET (scheduled 2:44 PM ET → 4:16 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ROC?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 47% of the time recently

↑ 2pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ROC (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5546 · DCA → ROC

Odds over time

How late did it get to ROC?