WN 3246 · AUS → MIA

departs 11:47 AM CT · arrives 3:34 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at AUS that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.63 in

MIA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.39 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3246 · AUS → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?