YX 4399 · DCA → CMH

departs 1:15 PM ET · arrives 2:48 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CMH?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ DCA is busy at that time

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

CMH (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling9,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4399 · DCA → CMH

Odds over time

How late will it get to CMH?