YX 4463 · DCA → LGA

departs 6:49 PM ET · arrives 8:12 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ 6pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4463 · DCA → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?