YX 4620 · DCA → IND

departs 12:44 PM ET · arrives 2:40 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 25h before departure

Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IND?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IND (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,767 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4620 · DCA → IND

Odds over time

How late will it get to IND?