YX 4716 · DCA → DTW

left the gate 11:00 AM ET · taxiing (scheduled 10:53 AM ET → 12:39 PM ET)

Your aircraft is N427YX (E75L), coming in as YX 4439 from BOS: landed 9:42 AM ET.

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at DTW that day

↑ 10am departures from DCA are often late

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Wednesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling10,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4716 · DCA → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?