AA 1613 · MIA → SJU

departs 10:27 AM ET · arrives 2:06 PM AT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJU?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SJU at that hour are often late

↑ 10am departures from MIA are often late

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

SJU (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.42 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1613 · MIA → SJU

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJU?