AA 3005 · JAX → DCA

took off 6:08 AM ET · landed 7:39 AM ET (scheduled 5:56 AM ET → 7:58 AM ET)

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DCA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from JAX are usually not late

Weather at each end

JAX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility9.66667 mi Precip0.23 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3005 · JAX → DCA

Odds over time

How late did it get to DCA?