AA 423 · DCA → ORD

departs 7:54 PM ET · arrives 8:59 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 7pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Thursdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility7.66667 mi Precip0.06 in

ORD (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 423 · DCA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?